Chapter 140 Position Logic
"Shanghai Steel Union's performance is not worthy of the increase, right?"
Faced with the unremarkable half-year performance report of Shanghai Steel Union, some people questioned it.
"Compared with popular stocks such as Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, and Changqu Technology, Shanghai Steel Union's financial report is really unbearable to look at."
"Does the logic need to be falsified? Are hot money speculating blindly?"
"It doesn't seem like it? Looking at today's daily limit trend, it is obvious that the main market funds have expectations for the performance of Shanghai Steel Union's financial report, right? And it's a good expectation."
"Oh, I don't understand..."
"In fact, there is nothing to understand. The logic of Shanghai Steel Union has not changed."
"Yes, hot money is speculating on Internet finance, and it is speculating on the expectation that Shanghai Steel Union will make efforts in Internet finance in the future with the help of the capital of the "Fuxing" system. As long as this expectation If the short-term performance is not disproven, then the short-term performance is shit and is not important at all. "
"Haha, performance is not important? Then what is the logic behind the stock price?"
"In my opinion, the funds that speculated on Shanghai Steel Union, including Fortune Road, are just speculating blindly."
"Those who say they are speculating blindly don't understand what the short-term logic is. They also say that performance is the logic that supports stock prices. Then why are the stock prices of Qianzhou Moutai and banks so low when their performance is so good? Are we all blind, or are all the funds and institutions in China stupid?"
"Fuck... I don't understand it either. Many stocks are obviously growing in performance, but their stock prices are dead. There is no improvement in life."
"Not only is there no improvement, but it keeps falling."
"Hey, I have finally understood that if you want to survive in the A-share market, you can't speculate on performance."
"Yes, the worse the performance, the higher the stock price. It's simply bizarre."
"What do you mean by bizarre? It's just that you don't understand the logic. The stock price is speculated on expectations, whether it is performance expectations or growth scale expectations. They are all expectations. If the performance grows but the stock price doesn't rise, it must be that the future growth expectations have changed."
"Tell me what will happen to Shanghai Steel Union tomorrow?"
"It's hard to say. In the short term, performance is really not important. It depends on the emotional game."
"I think the future After so many days of adjustment, the funds in the market today still pushed the daily limit even though they knew that the half-year performance report would be released tonight. They are obviously optimistic about the future market. I think it can still rise. "
"I also think it can still rise. Regardless of the performance, even from the technical analysis of the K-line, after the Shanghai Steel Union touched the 30 yuan mark and went out of the ceiling and floor, it did not completely break through the support platform at the highest point of the first wave of nine consecutive boards. This proves that there must be a lot of funds optimistic about this stock, and the market has not yet ended."
"Yes, yes, I think so too..."
When many retail investors and hot money still have good expectations for the future trend of Shanghai Steel Union.
The institutional funds in the entire market have expressed a critical attitude towards this core hot stock, as well as many "Internet finance", "mobile games", "film and television media", "electronic information" and other pan-"mobile Internet" concept stocks that have no performance support in the continuous rise of the GEM, but have outperformed at least 50% of the main board.
"This market is simply insane!"
Seeing most of the main board core blue-chip stocks and GEM core hot concept stocks that have disclosed their performance, a well-known public fund manager was very angry and sighed in an internal group.
"Indeed, look at the performance of the core blue-chip stocks and the GEM stocks that have been hyped up in recent months. There is a world of difference." Someone in the group echoed, "The A-share ecosystem is really hopeless. There are junk stocks everywhere, and market funds just like to hype these junk stocks."
"Take the most hyped Shanghai Steel Union and compare it with Qianzhou Moutai."
"Qianzhou Moutai's performance and business model are much better than Shanghai Steel Union's junk tickets, and the growth rate of performance is completely different. At the same time, we can look at the stock price performance of the two stocks this year. Qianzhou Moutai has fallen by almost 20%, which is more than the overall market, while Shanghai Steel Union has risen by almost 2 times, and it has reached its daily limit today. "
"What's even more outrageous is the overall market!"
"The overall valuation of the Shanghai Composite Index is only 11 times PE, while the ChiNext Index is more than 30 times, but the result is... In the past six months, the ChiNext Index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by more than 40%, which is simply unreasonable."
"Hey, keep holding on, I don't believe that the market is wrong. Can the market trend not be corrected and can it be maintained forever? "
"You can only hold on, otherwise... Is it time to chase the bubble stocks in the GEM?"
"I won't touch those junk stocks anyway, let the hot money speculate, I see who will take over the stocks with a PE of 100 times?"
"You can't just kill them all, there are also good things in the GEM."
"For example, Netspeed Technology, Fenda Technology, and many electronic information and Apple industry chain stocks, their performance is on the way to explosion, and the future expectations are also very good."
"The quality of a few stocks is good, but... it's too expensive, I can't afford it at all."
"Yes, like Netspeed Technology and Fenda Technology, the second quarter performance of these two stocks, whether year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter, has accelerated, but the PE is 98 times, how can I afford it? If I really chase these stocks at a high level, I think it is even more irresponsible to the current investors who trust us."
"Then I can only stick to the core weights, hey... I hope the market can return to normal as soon as possible! "
In the announcement of hundreds of stock results, in the heated discussions among investors from all sides of the market, and in the silent adjustment of investment strategies by many institutional and individual investors...
Tuesday, July 16th comes.
Early in the morning, Su Yu came to the company, held a short internal meeting, and then sat in front of the computer in the trading room, waiting for the stock market to open.
"Mr. Su..."
Li Meng reviewed the multi-support stocks that announced their results last night and asked: "The semi-annual report results of Wangsu Technology, Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, LeTV, Oriental Fortune and other stocks have all come out. Their growth The speeds vary. At this time, do we need to eliminate the weak and retain the strong, appropriately reduce the holdings of stocks with slow performance growth, and increase the holdings of stocks with fast performance growth? "
According to Su Yu, long-term investment should still be anchored by performance growth and future expectations.
That's why Li Meng asked this question.
"No need." Su Yu paused and said, "Although the medium and long-term stock positions we have established are invested according to the logic of pan-'mobile Internet', the small industries to which each stock belongs are not consistent, and their performance has increased. Compared with the expected future trend of the industry, there is no consistency, so there is no need to pay too much attention to 'removing the weak and retaining the strong'. There is nothing wrong with a balanced allocation when there is no fundamental change in the logic of building a position. "
"Okay!" Li Meng responded and stopped talking.
Su Yu thought for a while and continued: "As long as the basic logic does not change and does not fall short of expectations, then... all position fluctuations are normal."
"Yeah!" Li Meng responded, "I understand."
"The so-called simplicity, long-term and short-term investment, according to the bottom line, there are only two words 'expectation', one is performance growth expectations, and the other is emotional expectations." Su Yu said, "As long as performance growth expectations and emotional changes If your expectations are within your own psychological expectations, then feel free to hold positions boldly.”
The two of them talked and arrived at 9:15.
Su Yu fixed his gaze on the market and saw that Shanghai Steel Union continued to open slightly higher regardless of its performance; while the liquor sector, which was generally considered to have good performance, such as Qianzhou Moutai and Jincheng Fenjiu, had almost no premium; on the contrary, the Internet Su Technology, Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology and other emerging industry GEM stocks whose performance growth exceeded market expectations have opened sharply higher call auctions, and the rush for funds is extremely obvious.
Of course, the stock prices of several "Yuhang No. 1" stocks such as Waigaoqiao, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, and Shanghai Materials Trading, whose future expectations are not good and whose semi-annual report performance is also very poor, will perform very poorly. Call auctions They opened sharply lower, revealing extremely weak stock price trends.
"Li Meng, Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, please suppress it!"
Su Yu saw that after the semi-annual report was released, the trends of various stocks in the market became more and more clear. He knew that the opportunity had come to attack the opponent of Jingda Investment. His eyes flashed with a sharp light and he commanded in a deep voice: "Place an order of 1,000 lots." , suppress the call auction mood, don’t cancel orders, substantively suppress them. After inducing some in the market to liquidate their positions due to financial losses due to performance that is not as good as expected, we have many opportunities to take back the chips at a low price, so... at this time, don’t worry about it. For the question of whether to lose money on a position, just focus on the underlying main logic of the ‘Shanghai Free Trade Zone’.”
As he said that, Su Yu himself also placed a sell order of 1,000 lots on the Waigaoqiao market, which opened nearly 3% lower.
At the current time point, there is still more than a month until the country announces the economic strategic plan for the "Shanghai Free Trade Zone", so he is not worried about losing his chips at all.
"Okay!" Li Meng responded.
Without any hesitation, 1,000 sell orders were placed on the Shanghai-Hong Kong Group's call auction.
And at the same time, while Su Yu was suppressing the Waigaoqiao market, he continued to place 1,000 buy orders on the call auction market of Jincheng Fenjiu, which had no performance, raising the stock price of Jincheng Fenjiu and creating a call auction situation. .
And just when the two people placed orders accurately, affecting the stock price trends of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, Waigaoqiao, and Jincheng Fenjiu.
Inside Jingda Investment.
Gu Chijiang, the fund manager of the main fund of 'Jingda No. 1' and the general manager of Jingda Investment Company, is standing in the trading room, staring closely at the call auction trend of several core stocks held by the fund, squinting his eyes and looking to the side. The former head of the client department who was fired from the Fusheng Road Sales Department of Huaxin Securities asked: "Director Hao, your prediction has come true. The two checks I have been insisting on from Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao seem to be nothing." There is hope for a reversal, but the liquor sector, which you have been optimistic about, is showing signs of a reversal. "
Hao Weilai chuckled and said: "Mr. Gu is too polite. I just think the business model of the liquor sector is very good. The influence of 'plasticizer' will not kill the entire sector. And as this negative impact gradually dissipates, the economy With a slow recovery, the consumption demand for liquor will definitely surge further, and it is not impossible to return to the peak of 2011 or 2012. "
"It seems... we have to get rid of the weak and retain the strong." Gu Chijiang nodded slightly and said, "Since the performance of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao has come out and shown that it is not as good as expected, there is no need to continue to miss it. Alas...it took more than half a year and ended up with a loss."
"Mr. Gu... I think we can wait a little longer."
While the two were talking, another leader of the core trading group was silent for a while and said: "One semi-annual report data doesn't mean much."